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机器学习预测不明原因不孕患者IVF结局的探索性研究

Machine learning prediction of IVF outcomes in unexplained infertility

PubMed · 辅助生殖临床 · Turk J Obstet Gynecol (IF 未收录) · 文献 · 2026-11-02
Kaya Y, Aydın Y, Kaya C, Tahta T, Çelik Ö, Özkaya Karabıçak Ş
DOI 10.4274/tjod.galenos.2026.10663 · PMID 42969655 · 原文链接 ↗ · Scholar
综合 60.0 模型 60.0 · deepseek/deepseek-flash · 强度 low 已入选 辅助生殖技术与临床结局 AI 与计算生殖医学 精子与男性生殖
新颖 65严谨 45影响 50领域相关 90转化 55

摘要

该回顾性单中心研究纳入145对不明原因不孕夫妇,采用五种机器学习算法预测IVF临床妊娠结局。LGBM模型表现最佳,测试集ROC-AUC为0.712、准确率65.2%。置换特征重要性提示促性腺激素总剂量、初始剂量、精子总数、前向运动精子数及不孕年限较重要。作者强调样本小、无外部验证且缺少活产数据,结果仅为探索性,尚不能用于临床决策。

原文摘要

OBJECTIVE: To develop and evaluate machine learning (ML) models to predict clinical pregnancy (CP) outcomes in couples with unexplained infertility (UI) undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF), thereby enhancing early treatment decision-making and patient counseling. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 145 couples diagnosed with UI and treated at a single-center IVF clinic. Live birth data were not available; therefore, CP was used as the primary outcome. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory parameters were collected, and five ML algorithms-light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), random forest, logistic regression, extra trees classifier, and eXtreme gradient boosting-were applied to predict CP outcomes. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Permutation-based feature importance analysis was performed to identify key predictive variables. RESULTS: Among the evaluated models, the LGBM model achieved the highest test-set ROC-AUC (0.712) and an accuracy of 65.2%. Given the small test sample and the lack of external validation, these findings should be interpreted as exploratory. Variables receiving the highest permutation feature-importance scores included total gonadotropin dose, initial gonadotropin dose, total sperm count, progressive motile sperm count, and infertility duration. These findings should be interpreted as exploratory and do not establish that these variables are independent predictors of CP. CONCLUSION: This study presents the first ML-based approach tailored to predicting CP outcomes in couples with UI undergoing IVF. The results highlight the potential of artificial intelligence to inform personalized reproductive care. These exploratory findings demonstrate the feasibility of applying ML methods in UI. Larger prospective multicenter studies are required to determine whether clinically useful prediction models can be developed.

推荐理由:可作为AI辅助生殖结局预测的早期探索阅读,但样本量小、单中心、无外部验证且以临床妊娠为终点,临床转化价值有限。

关键词:机器学习 · 不明原因不孕 · 体外受精 · 临床妊娠 · 预测模型 · LGBM

解读依据: 仅摘要 尚未抓取全文(未入选、分数未达阈值,或还没跑 fulltext 步骤)

文献解读

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所属事件:机器学习预测不明原因不孕患者IVF结局的探索性研究 热度 3.4 · 1 个来源

条目 #115 · 入库 2026-11-08 11:43 · JSON · Journal Article